摘要
为分析改革开放以来工业废水排放与工业产值在空间变化上的耦合过程,将全国分为4个地区,1981—2011年分为4个阶段,并引入偏离-份额分析法进行定量计算。结果表明,1)31年来,中国工业废水排放量呈现"上升-下降-上升-下降"的波动式变化趋势。其中,1987年排放量最高,达260.3×108t;1997年排放量最低,为184.5×108t。2)分省区看,工业废水排放量相对集中。31年来,排放量超过400×108t的5个省份(江苏、四川、广东、湖南、浙江)占全国总量的37.2%。3)西部地区工业废水排放强度年均降低11.8%,降幅高于东部、东北、中部的9.9%、10.2%、11.5%。4)相比于工业产值的增长,4大地区间工业废水增长速度的差异更大,各地间的非均衡增长更为明显。同时在4大地区内部,工业废水排放量的差异也在变大。5)31年来,地区间工业经济经历了"低水平均衡-非均衡-均衡"的过程,而工业废水排放量则基本向非均衡状态发展。6)技术因素(工业废水排放强度)对废水排放量增量的抑制作用将逐渐减弱,工业废水增长量受工业产值增长的影响将越来越明显。
In order to analysis the spatial coupling variation of industrial wastewater discharge and industrial output value since the Reform and Opening,we divided the whole country into four regions and the long time period（from 1981 to 2011） into four periods.The shift-share model was introduced into quantitative calculation.The results showed that： 1）During the 31 years（from 1981 to 2011）,the amount of industrial wastewater discharged in China showed an ‘increasing-declining-increasing-declining’ time trend with a fluctuations.The maximum amount was 260.3×108 t in 1987,and the minimum amount was 184.5×108 t in 1997.2）Amount of industrial wastewater discharged was relatively concentrated on province level.From 1981 to 2011,the total amount of Jiangsu,Sichuan,Guangdong,Hunan and Zhejiang was more than 400×108t;and the combined amount of these provinces accounted for 37.2% of the national total.3）The annual average reduction on amount of industrial wastewater discharged was 11.8% in the western areas,9.9% in the east areas,10.2% in the northeast areas,and 11.5% in the middle areas.The annual average reduction on amount of industrial wastewater discharged in western areas was higher than that in other areas.4）Compared to the growth of industrial output value,difference on the growth rate of industrial wastewater was wider and unbalanced growth was more obvious among the four areas.Meanwhile,the difference on amount of industrial wastewater discharged among the four areas was becoming wider.5）During the 31 years,regional industrial economy experienced a ‘low-level equilibrium’ – ‘non-balanced’ – ‘balanced’ process,whereas amount of industrial wastewater discharged basically developed to the non-balanced status.6）Inhibitory effect of technical factor（intensity of industrial wastewater discharged） on the increments of wastewater discharged amount was gradually weak,whereas the effect of industrial output value growth on the increments of industrial wastewater was more and more obvious.
出处
《生态环境学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第7期1199-1203,共5页
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07106-001-001)
关键词
偏离-份额
工业废水
耦合
污染排放
经济增长
shift-share model
industrial wastewater
coupling
pollutant discharge
economic growth
