摘要
基于野外调查获得的贵州杉木林地理分布信息、世界气候数据库中相应区域的数据,在19个重要生物-气候因子下,运用根据最大熵(MAXENT)原理开发的软件MAXENT-V3.3.3k,预测了未来70年内A2气候变化情景中贵州杉木林的适生性及其潜在地理分布的演化趋势。预测结果显示:(1)一旦杉木林区域有持续的气温攀升和降水量的缓慢增加,原有的各等级适生区将会出现先增长后减少最后逐渐稳定的格局,并围绕黔东南的最适生中心区形成稳定的林区;(2)A2气候情景总体上有利于贵州杉木林生产基地的发展以及长江与珠江防护林带的建设,但是这需要控制好人口增长,发展新技术,并注重区域性合作;(3)MAXENT有准确捕捉到杉木主要生物-气候因子的强大能力,提供了评估创建贵州省和黔—湘—桂交界处杉木生产基地的可能性。
The evolvement trends in suitability and geographic distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata stands in Guizhou area were predicated with 19 important bio-climatic predictors fitted under the scenario A2 of climatic change within 70 years, based on the information its geographic distributions obtained from the field survey and climatic data modeled by WorldClim, and by using MAXENT-V3.3.3k software. The predicted results show that （1） Once the air temperature arised continually and precipitation increased slowly in the C. lanceolata trees growth area, there would be some changes that every growth levels of the origin suitable areas grew first and then decreased, and final, gradually become a stable area around the suitability centre in the southeast of Guizhou; （2） Generally, the climate scenario A2 is favored for the development of Guizhou Chinese fir production base and the construction of protection forest around the Yangtze River and the Pearl River, but this need to control the population growth, the development of new technology and to emphasize the regional cooperation; （3） The prediction method has the ability accurately getting main bio-climatic factors for C. lanceolata and provides a possibility for evaluating to establish China fir production base in Guizhou and in the juncture area of Guizhou-Hunan-Guangxi.
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第9期87-92,共6页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology
基金
贵州省科技厅项目(黔科合J字LKM[2011]22)
关键词
杉木林
适生性
预测未来
MAXENT-V3
3
3k
贵州地区
Cunningharnia lanceolata
suitability
prediction of future
MAXENT-V3.3.3k software
Guizhou area
