摘要
为在小区域尺度上定量地探讨冬小麦物候期及其对气候变化的响应，为当地农业生产提供更精确的依据，基于河南东部商丘地区8个农业气象观测站1981—2010年冬小麦物候观测资料和同时段的气象观测资料，采用相关分析、多元逐步回归分析和变异系数的方法，分析了冬小麦物候期的变化及其与气候要素的关系和物候对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明：1）豫东地区冬小麦从播种到返青各物候期变化不显著，而起身、拔节、抽穗、开花和成熟期均存在不同程度的提前趋势，最终导致全生育期缩短3．3d／10a。2）冬小麦各物候期的变化主要与温度有关，其次是日照时数，而与降水相关性不显著；影响豫东地区冬小麦物候期的主导因子是物候发生当月及发生前1～2个月的温度和日照时数。1月平均温度每升高1℃，返青期提前2．2d，3月平均温度每升高1℃，起身、拔节、抽穗和开花期分别提前1．5d、3．2d、2．1d和1．5d。3）冬小麦返青一起身和乳熟一成熟阶段对气候变化响应最为敏感，其次是起身-拔节和抽穗-开花期。
In order to accurately explore and predict the relationship between winter wheat phenology and climate changes on a regional scale, the phenological phases of winter wheat and climate data in the same period of eight meteorological stations from 1981 to 2010 in Shangqiu, Henan were analyzed by correlation analysis, multiple stepwise regression analysis, and coefficient of variation. The results showed that the sowing, overwintering, and reviving stages of winter wheat were not significant in the past 30 years, while the stages from standing to maturity except milk ripen became earlier in different extent, therefore whole growing period had been reduced by 3. 3 day in every ten years. Temperature had significant correlations to phonological phase changes, and followed by sunshine hours, while there was no significant correlation between precipitation and phase changes. The dominant meteorological factors influenced phonological phases were average temperature in Jan. and Mar. and the sunshine hours from Feb. to May. When the average temperature in Jan. increased by I℃, the reviving stage was earlier for 2.2 d ays, while standing, jointing, heading, and flowering stages for 1. 5, 3. 2, 2. 1 and 1. 5 days, respectively. Reviving-standing and milk ripen - ripen were the most sensitive stages to climate change, and followed bv standin-iointin and heading-flowering： staes.
出处
《贵州农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2013年第9期153-157,共5页
Guizhou Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金"气候变化对黄淮海平原典型农区冬小麦的影响及其适应对策"(41140019)
河南省科技攻关计划"采煤塌陷区复垦土壤生态修复综合技术研究"(122102310613)
关键词
冬小麦
物候期
气候响应
豫东
winter wheat phonological phase climate response Eastern Henan
