摘要
突发自然灾害事件导致的微博舆情蔓延迅速,影响巨大。建立了微博舆情蔓延SIR模型,以2013年4月20日四川省雅安地震这一自然灾害事件在新浪微博上的舆情蔓延为例,采用MATLAB仿真,对微博舆情蔓延规律进行实证研究。开创性地同时从情报学和传染病学的角度来研究突发自然灾害事件微博舆情蔓延特征:从微博舆情蔓延的速度、广度、深度来分析微博舆情蔓延的离散分布、小世界、最小努力性的情报学特征;从"病原体"、传染性、免疫性来分析微博舆情蔓延的传染病学特征。结合这两方面的特征,从微博舆情的"传染源"、"传播途径"、"易感人群"的角度提出微博舆情蔓延控制措施,为突发自然灾害事件微博舆情应急管理提供理论和实践支持。
The mieroblog opinion generated by sudden natural calamity spreads rapidly, and has great impact. We build the epidemic model { SIR model）, then we simulate the dissemination of microblog opinion caused by the Ya＇ an Earthquake on April 20 in Sichuan province by MATLAB. Empirical research method is adopted to study the dissemination law of microblog opinion. The method used in studying the characteristics of the dissemination of microblog opinion from both the 2 perspectives of intelligence science and epidemiology is groundZbreaking. Scattered distribution principle, small world principal, and the least effort principle are the features from intelligence science analysis, and pathogen, infectivity, and immunity features comes from epidemiology analysis. Finally, to provide theoretical and practical support for the management of sudden natural calamity, we put forward the controlling strategy of the dissemination law of mi- croblog opinion.
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第9期23-28,共6页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国与周边国家水资源合作开发机制研究"(编号:11&ZD168)
关键词
突发自然灾害
微博舆情
传染病模型
蔓延规律
控制策略
sudden natural calamity microblog opinion epidemic model dissemination law controlling strategy
