摘要
运用生态足迹和灰色预测模型,对资源型城市——邢台市2003—2011年的生态足迹进行分析,并对未来时段的生态足迹进行预测。结果表明:邢台市人均生态足迹从2003的1.866hm2/人增至2011年的2.133hm2/人,增加了0.267hm2/人;而生态承载力却由0.376 5hm2/人降至0.356 8hm2/人,下降了0.019 7hm2/人,从而产生了生态赤字;生态赤字由2003年的-1.489 5hm2/人降至2005年的-1.951 2hm2/人,出现了极值,然后又升至2011年的-1.776 2hm2/人,呈"V"字形。邢台市的发展处于不可持续的状态。预测结果显示:2012—2025年,邢台市生态赤字逐年增大,从2012年的-1.746 6hm2/人,增加到2025年的-1.685 6hm2/人。邢台市未来资源消费仍将大大超过其生态承载力,处于不可持续的状态。因此,邢台市必须优化能源利用结构,加大土地开发整理力度,采取一系列有效的措施,提高社会经济的可持续水平。
The method of ecological footprint and the grey prediction model were applied to analyze the change of ecological footprint during 2003and 2011trend of resources-based cities-Xingtai city,and the ecological footprint of the future forecast.The results indicated the per capita ecological footprint of Xingtai city ranged from 1.866hm2 per capital to 2.133hm2 per capital between 2003and 2011,increasing 0.267hm2 per capital.The ecological carrying capacity varied from 0.376 5hm2 per capital to 0.356 8hm2 per capital,decreasing by 0.019 7hm2 per capital and resulting in the ecological deficit.Negative 1.951 2hm2 per capital ecological deficit changed into negative 1.489 5hm2 per capital from 2003to 2005,the extreme value presented,and then it returned to minus 1.776 2hm2 per capital people in 2011,its variation shaped looked like the＂ V＂,indicating that the development of Xingtai was in unsustainable state.The predictive results show that： from 2012to 2025in Xingtai City,the ecological deficit will increase year by year,from 1.746 6hm2 per capital in 2012to 1.685 6hm2 per capital in 2025.The future resource consumption of Xingtai city will greatly exceed the ecological carrying capacity,and is unsustainable.Xingtai city must optimize the energy structure,increase the intensity of land development and consolidation,take a series of effective measures for the purpose of improving the sustainable social and economic level.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期248-252,共5页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
河北省自然科学基金项目(D2012108001)
关键词
资源型城市
生态足迹
可持续发展
邢台市
resource type cities
ecological footprint
sustainable development
Xingtai city
