摘要
基于分位数回归模型实证检验了粮食产量分布规律的气候效应。实证结果表明,粮食单产显著地受到温度、降水这两种气候因素的影响。温度带来的是正向效应,降水则带来负向效应;温度效应存在于粮食产量的各级分位数,但是随着分位点数的上升,粮食单产的温度弹性系数趋于降低。技术进步降低了粮食生产对温度的依赖性,但对降水效应的影响不显著。
The climatic effects of food production distribution are tested based on quantile regression model. The empirical results show that grain yield was significantly affected by temperature and precipitation. Temperature is positively correlated to yield, and precipitation is negatively correlated to yield. This temperature effect exists the quantiles of the food production at all levels. With the rise of quantile, the temperature elasticity coefficient of grain yield tends to reduced. Technological advances have reduced the dependence of grain yield on temperature. While technological has no significant effect on precipitation effects.
出处
《生态经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期95-97,106,共4页
Ecological Economy
基金
江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目"天气指数保险产品设计研究"(2012SJB790038)
中国气象局气象软科学项目"农业气象灾害风险管理与金融创新产品研究"([2013]第70号)
关键词
粮食产量
产量分布
气候效应
分位数回归
grain production
yield distribution
climate effects
quantile regression
