摘要
进行气候变化背景下四川地区农业气候资源时空变化趋势的预估可对未来应对气候变化及宏观决策提供重要的理论依据。研究利用区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来A2和B2气候情景(2071-2100年)及基准气候条件(1961-1990年)气象要素资料,分析了四川全年和温度生长期内平均气温、≥10℃积温、日照时数、降水量、参考作物蒸散量和湿润指数的时空变化特征。结果表明,与基准气候条件相比,A2和B2情景下,2071-2100年四川省年平均气温和温度生长期内≥10℃积温呈升高趋势;川西高原年日照时数呈减少趋势,而其他地区以增加为主,温度生长期内日照时数呈增加趋势;A2情景下年降水量以增加为主,B2情景下年降水量有增有减,未来A2和B2情景下温度生长期内降水量在大部地区都呈增加趋势;年参考作物蒸散量和温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量都以增加为主;而年湿润指数和温度生长期内湿润指数在大部地区以减小为主。
Predicting the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural climatic resources under the background of global climate change in Sichuan province can provide theoretical support for developing a national response to climate change.Based on daily data from the A2 and B2 climate scenarios（2071-2100） and baseline climate conditions（1961-1990） from the regional climate model PRECIS,spatial and temporal change in mean temperature,thermal time ≥10°C,sunshine hours,precipitation,reference crop evapotranspiration and humidity index in Sichuan in the whole year and during temperature-defined growth periods were calculated.The results show that the annual mean temperature and thermal time ≥10°C during a temperature-defined growth period will increase under A2 and B2 climate scenarios.Annual sunshine hours will increase across Sichuan,except on the western plateau.Sunshine hours during the temperature-defined growth period showed an increasing trend.Annual precipitation will increase in most regions of Sichuan under the A2 climate scenario,and precipitation during the temperature-defined growth period will increase in most regions of Sichuan under A2 and B2.Reference crop evapotranspiration is likely to increase across Sichuan across the whole year and during temperature-defined growth period,but the humidity index is predicted to decrease in most regions of Sichuan year-round and during temperature-defined growth.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第9期1917-1924,共8页
Resources Science
基金
国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)(编号:2013CB430205)
国家重大科学研究计划"973"项目(编号:2012CB956204)
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原气象开放基金课题(编号:LPM2013002)
关键词
四川
农业气候资源
时空特征
未来预估
气候变化
Sichuan
Agricultural climate resources
Spatiotemporal characteristics
Future forecast
Climate change
