摘要
分析了马尔萨斯等经典人口模型的动力机制,建立了基于人口迁徙的城乡人口系统模型,利用系统动力学方法进行计算机迭代仿真;综合其他人口预测模型结果,认为我国人口增长日趋乏力,2025年将达到14.2亿左右的峰值、30年代中期会达到老龄人口高峰,潜在的人口城镇化率在71%左右,但接近期趋势预测,2030年前后即达到极限,且不会超过65%.
This paper analyzed Malthus and other classical population model for the establishment of the system model of the urban and rural populations, organized iterative simulation with system dynamics, which forecasted that China＇s population grew increasingly weak, the peak of the population in 2025 will reach 1.4 billion, the formation of the peak platform of the aging population will be in the mid-2030s. The model also shows that the potential rate of the population urbanization is about 71%, but according to the recent trends, the rate will reach its limit around 2030 which does not exceed 65%.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第18期68-77,共10页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(71203217)
博士后基金面上项目(2013M540175)
关键词
人口预测
人口城市化
人口红利
系统动力学
population projections
population urbanization
demographic dividend
system dynamics
