摘要
自然界许多复杂系统的动力学结构因其受外强迫的作用,常常会发生与人类生活密切相关的突变.对突变做出准确预测并采取相应对策的有效途径就是检测.Fisher信息(FI)是一种能够敏锐捕捉并刻画系统变量的概率密度分布发生微小变化的量;而当系统的动力学结构发生突变时,来自突变前后两种不同动力学结构的数据其概率密度分布肯定会发生不同程度的改变.基于此,本文将它用于检测和识别系统动力学结构所发生的突变,以一种全新的思路来解决突变检测问题.首先通过理想数据序列展示了使用FI来表征各种不同类型理想信号突变的能力.进而应用于中国气象局国家气象信息中心"西北地区地面气候资料日值数据集"兰州站1960—2008年日平均气温资料的实际检测中,结果表明与已有历史记载相符合,进一步验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.
The dynamics structure of many complex system there often happens a suddenly change due to the effect of outside force in nature. This abrupt change is closely related to human life. In order to make an accurate prediction of abrupt change and take corresponding measures, abrupt change should be detected effectively. Fisher information （FI） can keenly catch and characterize a small change in probability density distribution （PDD） of a system variable. While there is a change in dynamic structure of a system, the PDD of the system variable will have some changes correspondingly. In view of this, in this paper we describe in detail that FI is used to detect and recognize the abrupt change of system dynamics structure, and it is a new method to solve the detection of abrupt change in dynamic structure of a system. First of all, this method is used to present the ability to detect abrupt change lying in ideal datasets of different types of ideal signals. Next, this method is used to analyze daily datasets of ground climate from national meteorological information center of China meteorological administration between 1960 and 2008 in Lanzhou meteorological observation station in Northwest area. The results show that the daily datasets are consistent with historical records, which further verifies that the method is effective and practical.
出处
《物理学报》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第18期546-554,共9页
Acta Physica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金(批准号:61273154/F030116
51077066/E070303)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程(批准号:苏政办发(2011)6号)资助的课题~~
关键词
Fisher信息
动力学结构
突变检测
概率密度分布
Fisher information, dynamics structure, abrupt change detection, probability density distribution
