社会融资规模适合作为货币政策中间目标吗? 被引量：19

Is All-system Financing Aggregate a Good Intermediate Target

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摘要采用随机波动的时变参数结构向量自回归模型(SV-TVP-SVAR),分别考察M_1、M_2、银行间7天同业拆借利率、贷款、社会融资规模与消费者价格指数、宏观经济景气一致指数之间的关系。发现货币政策传导效应具有非常显著的时变特征,没有一个变量适合在所有时期作为货币政策中间目标;就价格水平而言,从2009年起,M_1是一个最优的货币政策中间目标;而就宏观经济而言,从2010年起,社会融资规模是一个最优的货币政策中间目标。货币政策调控时不能仅仅参考某一个变量作为中间目标。 We employ a SV-TVP-SVAR model to examine the relationships between M1, M2, Shibor-lw, loan, all-system financing aggregate and CPI, macroeconomic coincident index respectively. We argue that monetary policy transmission has great time-varying effects and none of the variables mentioned above is a good intermediate target for all the time, M1 is an optimal target from 2009 in terms of price level and all-system financing aggregate is an optimal one from 2010 in terms of macro-economy. The People＇s Bank of China maybe takes multi-intermediate targets.

作者周先平冀志斌李标

机构地区中南财经政法大学金融学院中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第10期79-93,共15页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基金 2011年教育部人文社科研究项目(11YJC790309) 2011年国家自然科学基金天元项目(11126314) 2012年国家社科基金青年项目(12CJY110) 第五十二批中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M520512) 2013年中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2722013JC019) 2013年教育部人文社科研究项目(13YJC790055)资助

关键词融资规模货币政策时变传导效应 SV-TVP—SVAR Financing Aggregate Monetary Policy Time-varying Transmission Effect SV-TVP-SVAR

分类号 F830.31 [经济管理—金融学]

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