摘要
文章通过时间序列分析、游客密度指数和Zipf结构分析法,遵循整体到局部到个体、再到个体间的联系这一逻辑顺序,对中国"十一"黄金周旅游流进行了时间和空间分布特征研究,并得出以下结论:(1)时间维度上,中国"十一"黄金周的旅游人数自黄金周制度实行以来就一直处于稳步增长状态,且增长趋势大体符合拟合曲线,仅2012年出现较大偏差;(2)"十一"黄金周时期,中国各经济区域旅游在发展趋势上呈现中部最快,其次是南快北慢、东快西慢的特征;(3)中国"十一"黄金周旅游流在空间上的分布呈现交叉梯形格局,与中国的区域经济发展大体一致;(4)近5年,各年度中国"十一"黄金周旅游流在局部范围里拟合效果较好,具有明显的分形特征,特别是规模位序靠前的各省市区的旅游流等级规模较为集中。
Study of tourist flow is an important part of the tourism geography research. It extends the study of tourist displacement behavior to incorporate the dimensions of time and space. The research on the pattern of tourist flow in terms of its time-space structure and volume is of great practical significance. The volume of tourist flow indicates the number of tourists that the destination received in a certain time period, and the related research concentrates on the scale of tourists. The time distribution of the tourist flow is one element in the tourism economy index of the tourist destination, which is the basis for capacity planning, marketing, and volume control of the destination. Spatial structure is an inherent feature of tourist flow, the study of which helps to promote the development of tourism resources, product design, and marketing. With a growing Chinese economy and personal consumption budgets, consumer demands have changed a lot, which all makes traveling during holidays more and more popular. The large size of holiday tourism has made the study of the volume of tourist flow particularly important. The growth of tourist volume on the one hand indicates the development of Golden Week tourism, on the other hand, it gives rise to many problems, therefore research on tourist flow is getting more the attention from scholars. In order to provide a representative view of the pattern of time and space distribution of tourist flow on the Golden Week around National Day in recent years, this paper studies 29 Chinese provinces within the 5 year timeframe from 2008 to 2012. The main research methodologies include time series analysis, density index of tourists, and Zipf structural analysis. This study follows the logic sequence of investigation from the overall trend to the regional pattern, to the individual units, and eventually the inter-relationship of individuals. The research data were obtained from the National Holiday Tourism Coordination Office and the provincial subsidiary offices （no data for Guangdong and Qinghai）. Other data are calculated based on the year-to-year growth rate. We first use time serious analysis to get the overall trend using the number of tourists on Golden Week around National Day from 1999 to 2012. We then run the analysis by regions for the data from 2008 to 2012. The next step, in a space context, we study the tourist flow distribution with the tourist density index for Chinese economic regions and the 29 provinces from 2008 to 2012. This, we believe, should capture the spatial tourism relation between the provinces during the Golden Week around National Day. Finally, we investigate the spatial distribution of tourist flow across the 29 provinces on the Golden Week around National Day using Zipf analysis. In conclusion, this paper identifies ： （ 1 ） In the dimension of time, the numbers of tourist on the Golden Week around National Day follow a steady growing trend since the implementation of the ＂ Golden Week＂ tourism promotion policy. The growth trend is basically consistent with the fitted curves with the exception of year 2012. （2） During the Golden Week around National Day, the central areas of China experience the overall fastest growing trend followed by the south and the east. The north and west part of China has seen a slower growth trend. （3） The spatial distribution of tourist flow during the Golden Week around National Day exhibits a cross-trapezoid pattern which is consistent with the regional economic development of China. （4） The tourist flow regression analysis yields satisfactory of Golden Week around National Day results in regional study for the past five years, with typical fractal characters. More specifically, the scale ranking of tourist flow follows the scale ranking of the provinces in general.
出处
《旅游学刊》
CSSCI
2013年第10期37-46,共10页
Tourism Tribune
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41201143)
国家旅游局重点科研立项(13TAAK005)资助~~
关键词
“十一”黄金周
旅游流
时空分布
时间序列分析
Zipf分析
Golden Week around National Day
tourist flow
spatial and temporal characteristics
time series analysis
Zipf analysis
