摘要
首先从自然资源条件、饲料供给能力、生猪生产状况、养殖成本和效益、农业基础、科技支撑、生态环境状况等七个方面出发,建立了包含26个指标在内的生猪养殖业综合生产能力评价指标体系,然后采用熵权法、灰色关联分析法、主成分分析法分别对我国31个省市2000年、2005年、2008年的生猪养殖业综合生产能力进行了评价,接着运用Kendall协同系数检验法对三种方法评价结果的一致性进行了检验并进行组合评价,给出了各省市2000年、2005年、2008年生猪养殖综合生产能力的排名,并分析了2000-2008年一些省市排名变化较大的原因,最后应用系统聚类分析法将31个省市2008年生猪养殖综合生产能力划分为四个层级,确定了适合及不适合发展生猪养殖的区域,并根据评价结果以及我国各区域的特点,对31个省市生猪养殖的比较优势进行了详细的分析.
In this paper, we established an evaluation index system of comprehensive production capacity of hog industry, which included 26 indicators and mainly covered the following seven aspects： natural resource condition, supply capacity of feed, current status of hog production, costs and benefits of hog industry, agricultural foundation, technology support, and ecological environment condition. Then based on the index system, we applied entropy weight method, grey relational analysis and principal component analysis, to evaluate the comprehensive production capacity of hog industry of 31 provinces in China for the years 2000, 2005 and 2008 respectively. The consistency of these three methods was examined by Mann- Kendall test. A combined evaluation was conducted and reasons led to the great variation in rankings for some provinces during the period of 2000-2008 were analyzed. Finally, we divided all 31 provinces into four groups by applying hierarchical clustering, defined the regions which were appropriate for hog farming and which were not. Detailed analysis of evaluation results was presented.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第9期2263-2270,共8页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2009BADA9BB01-4)
国家自然科学基金(71173210
70701034
61273208)
关键词
生猪养殖
综合生产能力
资源和环境约束
组合评价
聚类分析
hog farming
comprehensive production capacity
resources and environment constraintscombined evaluation
cluster analysis
