摘要
冷战结束以来,中国和西方对"安全环境"的界定不同,中国侧重于以发展界定安全,西方大国则注重以威胁界定安全。中国政府和学术界对"安全环境"的理解,已经从以军事安全为主演变为军事、政治、经济、舆论四位一体,更具复杂性和动态性特征。因此,作者构建了新时期评估周边安全环境的分析框架与指标体系,包括政治安全环境、军事安全环境、发展安全环境、舆论安全环境以及中国自身对周边环境的塑造能力等构件,这些指标囊括了现实主义、自由制度主义和建构主义的学理判断。文章利用世界银行数据库、清华大学当代国际关系研究院的"中外关系数据库"以及《人民日报》数据库对各细分指标进行无量纲化处理,设定并对比了三种场景下的中国周边安全环境指数。对1992-2011年周边安全环境的分析表明,中国周边安全环境处于不断改善中。不过,2008年以后三种场景产生较大分叉,中国有可能已经进入了一个与前十几年完全不同的状况,中国需要与周边国家共同构建长期稳定的周边安全合作环境。
Since the end of the Cold War,the West and China have had a diverging interpretation of 'security environment'.China tends to define security from the perspective of development,while the West concerns external threat to security.In Chinese circumstances,the understanding of security environment has evolved from simply military to a more comprehensive one covering military,politics,economics and public opinions.This article develops a theoretical framework to analyze China’s peripheral security environment in the new era,and constructs an indicator system to evaluate it.The indicator system consists of political security environment,military security environment,development security environment,public opinion security environment,and China’s periphery strategy,drawing upon theories of realism,liberal institutionalism and constructivism.Furthermore,this article analyzes indicators through dimensionless methods based on databases of the World Bank,the 'Foreign Relations' database of Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University,and the People’s Daily,and compares the three peripheral security environment scenarios.The result shows that in general sense,China’s peripheral security environment has improved over the past decades.However,the situations after global financial crisis in 2008 have diverged,and different theoretical perspectives provide very different images.It seems that China has entered a very different environment,and for future stable security environment,China needs to cooperate with neighboring countries.
出处
《国际安全研究》
2013年第4期64-82,157-158,共19页
Journal of International Security Studies
关键词
周边环境
安全环境评估
分析框架
指标体系
peripheral environment,evaluation of security environment,analytical framework,indicator system
