摘要
日本企业投资不仅在四部门经济均衡中起重要作用,而且对总产出有重要影响。当期、滞后一期和滞后三期的企业投资对GDP的解释能力相当显著,因此,日本经济能否恢复快速或中速增长,企业投资的增速能否重启是至关重要的。长期中,日本企业投资最为显著的影响因素是最终消费和出口,融资成本变量对投资额的影响极不显著。日本的消费增长颓势并非是经济泡沫的后遗症,问题的关键在于总供给的物质属性无法诱致需求快速增长。因此,安倍的积极财政和宽松货币两项政策难以拉动国内最终消费。安倍政策短期内可以使日元贬值,日本的出口会实现一定程度的增长。但若各国货币竞相贬值,则日元贬值的出口效应将不复存在。
Japanese enterprises＇ investment not only plays an important role in the four sectors＇ economic equilibrium, but also has an important effect on output. Currently, the enterprises＇ investment of one-period and three-period lag has shown a significant explanatory power to GDP, so the rapid growth of investment of enterprises is important to Japanese economic recovery. In the long-term, the most significant variables are consumption and export, but financing cost is not important to the investment. Japanese consumption growth decline is not the sequel of the bubble economy. The problem is that the property of total supply can not stimulate the rapid growth of demand. So Abe＇s proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy can＇t drive domestic final consumption. These policies will depreciate Japanese yen and increase Japanese export. But the export effect of the depreciation of yen will no longer exist once the competitive devaluation of other countries＇ currencies appears.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期106-116,共11页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学重大项目(11JZD021)
关键词
日本经济
安倍经济政策
企业投资
出口
消费
Japanese economy
Abe＇s economic policy
enterprise investment
export
consumption
