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居民消费的影响因素及趋势分析——基于非线性面板数据模型 被引量:2

Analyses of Influencing Factors and Trend on China's Household Consumption——Based on Nonlinear Panel Data Model
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摘要 文章基于非线性平滑转换面板数据模型,分析我国城市居民和农村居民消费的影响因素以及变化趋势,实证结果如下:我国城市居民和农村民居均具有稳定的消费习惯,且稳定性随着收入水平递增;人均收入与居民消费率负相关;财政支出对居民消费率的挤入效应随着收入水平增加逐渐变小;城市老年抚养比和少年抚养比与居民消费率均为正相关,农村少年抚养比与居民消费率负相关;利率对居民消费率的影响随收入水平增加呈倒U型形状的变化。 The paper analyzes the factors and trend which affect Chinese urban and rural residents' consumption based on the nonlinear smooth transition panel data model. The empirical results show that: both urban and rural residents have stable consumption habit which is gradually strengthened with the increase of income. Per capita income is negative correlation with household consumption ratio. The 'erowding-in effect' of the government expenditure to residents' consumption ratio decreases with the increase of income level. The old-age support ratio has a positive eftect on household consumption, so does the young-age support ratio in the cities, while the young-age support ratio has a negative el'feet in the rural areas. The effect of interest rate on househoht consumption show the inverted U shape.
出处 《华东经济管理》 CSSCI 2013年第10期72-77,共6页 East China Economic Management
基金 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71271096) 中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目(CZQ12017 CSQ1101)
关键词 城市居民消费 农村居民消费 非线性平滑转换 面板数据模型 urban residents' consumption rural residents' consumption nonlinear smooth transition panel data model
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