摘要
针对洱海富营养化问题,本文在深入分析洱海流域营养物输运转移特征的基础上,应用VENSIM-DSS构建了洱海流域的社会、经济、技术、环境SD耦合模型.模型由7个子系统组成,确定了一套适用于洱海流域的耦合模型特征参数.对入湖TN、TP进行追根溯源,模拟结果表明洱海流域入湖TN主要来源于种植业子系统、畜牧业子系统、生活污水子系统和干湿沉降子系统,以上4大子系统占入湖TN的88%;入湖TP主要来源于种植业子系统、畜牧业子系统、生活污水子系统和水土流失子系统,以上4大子系统占入湖TP的89%.以此为基础通过设置4种不同的营养物削减情景,模拟未来10年入湖TN、TP的变化,并通过构建的政策评价子系统和DILLON模型定量评价不同削减方案的可行性,提出最优洱海流域营养物削减方案.
In order to solve the problem of lake eutrophication in Lake Erhai, a model based on the analysis of nutrients transport was applied to establish society, economy, technology and environment coupling SD model for Lake Erhai drainage area using VENSIM-DSS. The SD model is consisted of seven subsystems searching for the sources of TN and TP. The research established a set of parameters applicable for the Lake Erbai coupling model. The stimulation results showed 88% of TN was from the subsystems of plantation, animal husbandry., sewage and dry and wet deposition, and 89% of TP was from the subsystems of plantation, ani- mal husbandry, sewage, soil and water loss in Lake Erhai catchment. Based on the results, four kinds of nutrient reduction solu- tions were set to stimulate the changes of TN and TP for the next ten years. The feasibilities of different reduction solutions were quantitatively estimated by policy evaluation subsystem and DILLON model to put forward the optimal nutrient reduction solutions tor Lake Erhai catchment.
出处
《湖泊科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期655-664,共10页
Journal of Lake Sciences
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2009ZX07106-001)资助
