摘要
通过实证研究尝试预测考虑诱增交通量的交通需求预测方法,明确了诱增交通量的定义,在阐述了诱增出行和诱增交通量的关系的基础上,以大连东北快速路为例,通过在传统的四阶段模型(交通生成、交通分布、交通方式划分、交通分配)中导入"可达性(accessibility)变量",建立具有反馈构造的交通需求预测模型,通过计算最终得出由于新建东北快速路而产生约10.6%车公里的诱增交通量,证实了诱增交通量的存在.
Aiming at forecasting methods of traffic demand considering induced traffic through empirical re- search, the definition of induced traffic is clarified based on illustrating the relation between induced trips and induced traffic, through inserting a variable of accessibility into the traditional four-step model. Taking the Northeast Expressway in Dalian as an example, a travel demand forcasting model is established with feedback structure. With this model,it is found that the newly built Northeast Expressway leads to 10.6% vehicle-kilo- meter induced traffic, which proves the existence of induced travel demand.
出处
《大连交通大学学报》
CAS
2013年第5期1-5,共5页
Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50978046)
关键词
交通运输规划与管理
诱增交通量
反馈四阶段模型
可达性
transportation planning and management
induced traffic
four-step model with feedback
accessi- bility
