摘要
正确分析并准确预测飞行系统安全状况趋势,对预防、减少飞行事故具有重大现实意义。飞行系统中的四个子系统"人、机、环、管"的状态与飞行安全状况密切相关。鉴于系统的整体性、相关性、有序性、动态性及各子系统相互关系的不确定性,难以对飞行系统安全状况做出精确描述和预测,唯一有效处理方法是定性和定量相结合的综合集成分析方法。本文提出一种运用模糊关系合成原理,通过对某飞行系统历年统计数据定性、定量集成分析评估,预测飞行系统安全状况趋势。该方法可操作性强,且准确率较高。
Correctly analysize and predicting the trend of flight system safe state will do significant meaning to achieving the goal ＂zero accident ＂ ultimately.definitely flight safety is a magnificent system and involving mutipl factors.and the uni-effective method to analyze the complex flight safety system is to adopting synthetical integrating method qualitatively and quantitatively, this article advanced a fuzzy relation synthesize theory which can predict the safety state of flight system by synthetic evaluating the accumulated statistical data of one flight system qualitatively and quantitatively.the new method is manipulation apted and can be high accuracy.
出处
《中国科技信息》
2013年第19期38-40,共3页
China Science and Technology Information
