摘要
为了推动烟台市农业经济的快速增长,运用计量经济学Eviews6.0软件,采用OLS回归分析、ADF检验、JJ协整检验、误差修正、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,对烟台市农产品出口与农业经济增长的相关性进行实证研究。结果表明:烟台市农产品出口及上一年度的农业GDP对当年农业经济增长有着显著的拉动作用;从长期看,烟台市蔬菜、海产品的出口与农业经济增长呈负相关关系,而水果出口则与农业经济增长呈正相关关系;从短期看,烟台市前两年的蔬菜出口、农业GDP与当年农业经济增长呈负相关关系,前两年的水果、海产品出口与当年农业经济增长呈正相关关系。
In order to promote the rapid growth of the agricultural economy of Yantai City, the author adopted OLS regression analysis, ADF test, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, error correction, Granger test of causality by econometrics Eviews6.0 software to do an empirical research of the correlation between Yantai agricultural exports and agricultural economic growth. The results showed that Yantai agricultural exports and agricultural GDP last year played a significant role in boosting Yantai agricultural economic growth. In the long term, there was a negative correlation between the export of vegetables, seafood and agricultural economic growth. However, there was a positive correlation between fruit exports and the agricultural economic growth; in the short term, vegetable exports and the agricultural GDP in the past two years were negatively correlated with current agricultural economic growth, while the fruit, seafood exports were positively correlated with current agricultural economic growth.
出处
《贵州农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2013年第10期247-250,共4页
Guizhou Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国农业大学烟台研究院校级课题"烟台市农产品出口对农业经济增长影响的实证研究"(YT201118)
关键词
农产品出口
农业经济增长
总量分析
结构分析
烟台
agricultural exports~ agricultural economic growth~ aggregate analysis~ structural analy-sis ~ Yantai
