摘要
[ Objective] The study aimed to forecast human body feeling temperature. [ Method] Using air temperature data outside shutter boxes of cement and asphalt underlying surface at 1.5 m and conventional observation data from 2008 to 2010 as well as T639 and Japan numerical forecast product, the characteristics of the minimum temperature in winter half year and the maximum temperature in summer half year in Changzhou were analyzed, and the prediction equation of the maximum temperature from May to September as well as year-round comfort prediction index were es- tablished. Moreover, the announcement platform of human body feeling temperature was developed to forecast it. [ Result] There remained a tiny discrepancy in the winter minimum temperature between inside and outside shutter box, and clays with the minimum temperature difference lower than 2 ℃ accounted for 94.3% of total days. However, the summer maximum temperature difference between inside and outside shutter box was larger, and days with the maximum temperature difference higher than 2 ℃ accounted for 82.0%, while the maximum difference was 5.5 ℃. The prediction accuracy of the inside maximum temperature was 78%. Wind was considered as the primary factor based on the effective temperature, and comfort index forecast and service were determined based on human feelings, dress, meteorological care and so forth. Both human body feel- ing temperature and comfort index forecast were released in the temperature forecast service. [ Condusion] The prediction of human body feeling temperature could provide scientific references for people＇s dress and traveling in daily life.
[ Objective] The study aimed to forecast human body feeling temperature. [ Method] Using air temperature data outside shutter boxes of cement and asphalt underlying surface at 1.5 m and conventional observation data from 2008 to 2010 as well as T639 and Japan numerical forecast product, the characteristics of the minimum temperature in winter half year and the maximum temperature in summer half year in Changzhou were analyzed, and the prediction equation of the maximum temperature from May to September as well as year-round comfort prediction index were es- tablished. Moreover, the announcement platform of human body feeling temperature was developed to forecast it. [ Result] There remained a tiny discrepancy in the winter minimum temperature between inside and outside shutter box, and clays with the minimum temperature difference lower than 2 ℃ accounted for 94.3% of total days. However, the summer maximum temperature difference between inside and outside shutter box was larger, and days with the maximum temperature difference higher than 2 ℃ accounted for 82.0%, while the maximum difference was 5.5 ℃. The prediction accuracy of the inside maximum temperature was 78%. Wind was considered as the primary factor based on the effective temperature, and comfort index forecast and service were determined based on human feelings, dress, meteorological care and so forth. Both human body feel- ing temperature and comfort index forecast were released in the temperature forecast service. [ Condusion] The prediction of human body feeling temperature could provide scientific references for people＇s dress and traveling in daily life.
基金
Supported by the Fund of Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau,China(200609)
