摘要
借鉴Islam的研究思路，构建农业面源污染影响因素分解的理论模型。并利用1990～2010年省际面板数据进行实证研究，探讨农业面源污染演变的内在驱动机制，以期为农业面源污染控制和管理提供理论依据。主要研究结论如下：（1）农业面源污染演变受规模效应、结构效应和减污效应的共同影响；（2）规模效应对农业面源污染的影响为正，这说明农业生产规模和农村人口规模的扩大会增大农业面源污染的排放。结构效应的两个重要方面（经济作物比重的提高和畜禽养殖业产值比重的提高）都会导致农业面源污染的加剧。技术进步和经济发展的减污效席开始初步发挥，二者都能有效减少农、fp面源污染，汶为实现农、Ip毕产与牛杰环堵的协调管展根供了可能．
Since the reform and opening-up in 1978, institutional innovation and technological progress have promoted the development of agricultural economy. However, due to the ＂three-high （high energy consumption, high investment, and high waste）＂ mode of agricultural production, great achievements in agricultural development were largely at the expense of the ecological environment. Agricultural development and environmental protection have become an increasingly prominent conflict. Therefore, it is an important and urgent task to solve the contradiction among agricultural development, resource utilization and ecological environment protection. Following Islam,this paper developed a theoretical model to decompose the relationship between economic development and agricultural non-point source pollution. Using provincial level panel data from year 1990 to 2010 ,this paper investigated the driving mechanisms of the evolution of agricultural non-point source pollution in order to provide the theoretical basis for the control and management of agricultural non-point source pollution. The main conclusions are as follows. （1） The evolution of agricultural non-point source pollution was simultaneously influenced by the scale effect, the structure effect and the abatement effect. The scale effect was the effect of the scale of agricultural economic activity on agricultural non-point source pollution. Economic production consumed natural resources and produced waste, and therefore had a negative impact on the environment. The structure effect reflected the effect of the share of different industrial output on agricultural non-point source pollution. In different industries, factor inputs and production processes were different. Therefore, different industrial output had different impact on the environment. The abatement effect reflected the effect of the demand for environmental quality and the increase of environmental investment due to the increase of the level of economic development, technological progress, and the reform of agricultural environmental management system on agricultural non-point source pollution. （2） Empirical results show that the scale effect positively affected agricultural non-point source pollution, indicating that the expansion of the scale of agricultural production and rural population increased agricultural non-point source pollution. The two important aspects of the structure effect,i, e. the rise of the proportion of cash crop as well as the production value of livestock and poultry,increased agricultural non-point source pollution as well. The abatement effect due to technological progress and economic development started to play a role in effectively reducing agricultural non-point source pollution. This made the coordinated development between agricultural production and ecological environment possible.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第10期1369-1374,共6页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目"农村发展中生态环境管理研究"(70833001)
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJC790095)
教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET-10-0494)
中央高校基本科研业务费"农户测土配方施肥技术选择及其经济和生态效应综合评价研究"(KYZ201167)
江苏省青蓝工程资助项目
关键词
经济发展
农业面源污染
分解模型
面板数据
economic development
agricultural non-point source pollution
decomposition model
panel data
