摘要
人口结构是否会影响国际贸易?一方面,高劳动人口比例会使出口国产出增加,从而增加出口;另一方面,高劳动人口比例也会给进口国带来更多的劳动收入,从而增加进口。本文利用176个国家从1970年到2006年的大样本面板数据,并控制多边阻力等因素,在引入劳动人口比之后,对贸易引力方程的回归分析支持了如下理论预测:贸易国的劳动人口比例上升会增加双边贸易流;出口国(进口国)平均劳动人口比上升1%,出口(进口)会上升至少3%(2%)。这一发现对于理解人口大国(如中印)或贸易大国(如中美)的贸易具有重要的理论和现实意义。
Does demographic structure affect trade.9 On the one hand, a high working-age ratio in the exporting country can generate more output and hence lead to more export. On the other hand, a high working-age ratio in the importing country implies higher labor income and hence leads to more import. In this paper, we analyze the effect of demographic structure on trade by augmenting the gravity equation with the working-age ratio. Using a large panel dataset of 176 countries for the period 1970--2006 and controlling for multilateral resistance, we find empirical evidence consistent with our theoretical predictions. A 1% increase in exporter （importer）＇s working-age ratio leads to an at least 3% （2%） increase in its exports （imports）. Such findings are also helpful to understand the trade growth for countries with a large number of populations such as China and India and for countries with a huge amount of foreign trade such as China and the U. S.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第11期87-99,共13页
Economic Research Journal
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(2010年)的资助
关键词
国际贸易
劳动人口比
引力方程
International Trade
Working-age Ratio
Gravity Equation
