摘要
随着中国对外开放程度的深化,国际收支在中国经济中暂居重要位置,其所带来的外汇占款可能已成为干扰中国宏观经济政策的重要变量之一。本文在这一背景下建立了三层次实证分析模型,就近年来外汇占款对中国货币政策独立性的问题进行了分析。分析结果表明,外汇占款对中国货币政策的独立性产生了较大干扰,中央银行被动使用一些货币政策工具进行对冲,但无法对冲的外汇占款仍造成国内流动性过剩,这种过剩流动性既会影响中国经济,同时也是国际金融市场影响中国经济的渠道。因此,中央银行有必要进行一系列改革,避免货币政策的独立性受到影响。
With the deepening of opening degree of China,balance of payments in China's economy is getting more and more important,the funds outstanding for foreign exchange have become one of the important variables which disturb Chinese macroeconomic policy. Based on this background,the paper establishes three levels of analysis models which are analyzed the funds outstanding for foreign exchange on the independence of China monetary policy in recent years. The analysis results show that,due to the presence of the funds outstanding for foreign exchange,the independence of China monetary policy is disturbed,the central bank has to use some monetary policy tools to hedge,but the funds outstanding for foreign exchange which are unable to be hedged still cause excess liquidity. This excess liquidity exists,on the one hand,itself will affect China macro economy,on the other hand, it is also becoming a channel which international financial market influences china macro-economy. Therefore,it is necessary for the central bank to undertake a series of reform,in order to avoid the fact that the independence of the monetary policy is affected.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第11期21-26,87,共6页
World Economy Studies
