摘要
本文以流域为研究尺度,基于流域水电发展的系统特征,分析了流域水电可持续发展的内涵和关键要素。在此基础上,分别以"发展协调度"和"发展能力"体现流域水电发展可持续性的"效果"和"过程",综合考虑经济、社会、环境、技术和管理等内容,依据整体性和关键性原则,建立了5级层次的流域水电可持续性评价指标体系。并根据评价指标特征确定评价基准线,提出了定量化为主的评价标准,采用多属性评价和层次分析方法构建了评价模型。最后以即将完成梯级建设的乌江流域水电开发为例,进行了方法的应用和分析。
This paper discusses the concept and key points of basin-wide hydropower sustainability （BHS） for a system of river basin with consideration of various system features. To assess the BHS of any river basin, we developed a new system of five index layers for an overall consideration of factors such as economy, society, environment, technology and management, by the principle of selecting key and integral factors. Harmonious degree of basin development and potential of basin development are viewed as two different indicators that reflect the BHS＇s performance and process respectively. Then, baselines to quantify the assessment standards were established by the indicators features. Finally, we combined the multi-attribute utility theory with the analytic hierarchy process and constructed a quantitative assessment method. Application of this method is demonstrated in a case study of Wujiang river basin hydropower sustainability assessment.
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第6期287-293,共7页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2011BAC09B07-2)
中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项(电集1227)
关键词
水电能资源开发与利用
流域水电可持续性
指标体系
评价方法
乌江流域
development and utilization of hydropower resources
basin-wide hydropower sustainability
index system
assessment method
Wujiang river basin
