摘要
全球气候变暖将对农业病虫害的越冬界限产生影响,从而影响病虫害的发生动态。本文以GIS(地理信息系统)技术研究了未来高经济发展条件下能源种类平衡发展排放情景(A1B)下褐飞虱越冬界限及相应越冬区相对于baseline时段(1961-1990)的可能变化。结果表明:(1)越冬北界在2020s(2010-2039)北移约50km,安全越冬北界北移约110km;2050s(2040-2069)越冬北界北移约120km,安全越冬北界北移约250km。由于经纬度及海拔的影响,越冬界限北移存在一定区域差异。(2)越冬区明显扩大。相对于baseline时段,2020s褐飞虱间歇越冬区扩大约11.93万km2(约23.24%),安全越冬区增加约2.08万km2或0.66倍;2050s间歇越冬区扩大约25.99万km2(约50.63%),安全越冬区增加约18.82万km2或5.93倍。这些结果表明褐飞虱越冬界限对气候变暖响应明显,其中安全越冬北界较越冬北界北移幅度更大。气候变暖导致的安全越冬北界北移对未来褐飞虱的发生动态可能产生重要影响。
Global climate change,characterized by climate warming,can affect overwintering boundary of agricultural insect pests.Based on GIS technology,the influences of climate warming on the overwintering boundary of the brown planthopper （BPH）,Nilaparvata lugens,was analyzed for 2020s （2010-2039） and 2050s （2040-2069）.The climate change scenario used was A1B and the average overwintering boundary from 1961 to 1990 was used as the baseline.The results showed that,in 2020s,the northern boundary of intermittent overwintering region will move northward by about 50 km and of safe overwintering region,by around 110 km.In 2050s,the two boundaries will shift northward by about 120 km and 250 km,respectively.The results also revealed regional difference in the northward shift of overwintering boundaries due to latitude,longitude and altitude.With the northward shift of overwintering boundaries,area of overwintering region will increase.In 2020s,area of intermittent overwintering region will expand by about 0.1193 million km2 or 23.24％,and the area of safe overwintering region,by about 0.0208 million km2 or 0.66 fold,as compared with those of the baseline period.In 2050s,the area of the two overwintering regions will increase by 0.259 9 million km2 or 50.63％ and 0.188 2 million km2 or 5.93fold,respectively.The current results suggest that climate warming will enlarge the distribution of overwintering BPH,the northern boundary of safe overwintering region will shift northward more than that of intermittent overwintering region.
出处
《植物保护》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第6期21-25,31,共6页
Plant Protection
基金
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划课题(2010CB951503)
关键词
气候变暖
褐飞虱
越冬北界
安全越冬北界
climate change
brown planthopper
northern boundary of intermittent overwintering region
northern boundary of safe overwintering region
