摘要
美国加入并主导TPP既有其内在短期的经济动因,更有其长远深刻的战略意图。从发展趋势看,TPP的部分规则可能会逐步上升为国际贸易规则,其签署成功的可能性较大,但实现之前所宣称的"广覆盖、高标准"存在着不确定性。短期看,中国不加入TPP产生的负面影响相对有限,美国也很难实现借TPp成功牵制东亚一体化的目标;但从长期看,对于这一美国重返亚太、推动其战略重心东移的重要杠杆,中国应当立足当前,着眼长远,从全局和战略高度统筹谋划,深入开展跟踪研究,及早制定应对预案,为中国实现科学发展、和平发展创造有利的外部环境。
In joining and leading the TPP,the US has both internal economic incentives in the short term and profound strategic purposes in the long run.In terms of development trends,some of the TPP rules might gradually become international trade rules,and chances for their successful ratification are relatively high,although uncertainty remains in the realization of "wide coverage,high standard",as the US has claimed.In the short run,negative consequences of China not being included in the TPP are relatively limited while it is also quite unrealistic for the US to hinder the integration of East Asia through the TPP.However,in the long run,as TPP is Washington's important leverage for its return to Asia and its strategic rebalancing eastwards,China should have the foresight to organize in-depth follow-up research and make thorough pre-arranged plans to cope with possible new trends as TPP negotiations unfold so as to create a favorable external environment for its development in the future.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期65-76,共12页
International Economic Review
