摘要
从物流产业发展的投入产出角度出发,以物流产业内部供给与需求为研究对象,以系统动力学流图为基础描述了物流系统内部供需关系,建立了供需关系的数学模型及系统动力学模型。通过对模型进行参数估计、有效性检验,并对相关指标进行灵敏度分析,发现对货运量影响最大的因素是每单位GDP物流需求系数,对物流产业总产值影响最大的因素是社会物流总额,对物流固定资产投资额影响最大的因素是货运量。
In this paper, starting from the perspective of the input/output in the development of the logistics industry and with the industry- internal supply and demand as the object, we described the supply- demand relationship within the logistics industry on the basis of the flowchart in system dynamics theory and built the mathematic model and system dynamics model of the supply- demand relationship. Then by analyzing the model we found that the greatest influence factor of freight volume was logistics demand coefficient per unit GDP, the greatest influence factor of the total production of the logistics industry was total social logistics volume, and the greatest influence factor of the investment in fixed logistics assets was freight volume.
出处
《物流技术》
北大核心
2013年第11期233-237,共5页
Logistics Technology
关键词
物流产业
供需机理
系统动力学
灵敏度分析
logistics industry
supply-demand mechanism
system dynamics
sensitivity analysis
