摘要
对风电场输出功率进行预测是保证大规模风电集中并网后电力系统安全稳定运行的有效手段。提出了种基于天气分型的风电功率预测算法,以数值天气预报(numerical weather prediction,NWP)中的风速向量和压力日变化为基础,采用主成分分析对样本进行降维处理,以聚类分析的方法对天气类型进行分类,针对不同的天气类型分别建立预测模型,并与单预测模型进行对比。研究结果表明,主成分分析结合聚类分析的方法可实现对天气现象的有效分类;对于较为稳定的天气现象,聚类模型较单模型的预测精度提高显著,而对于不稳定的天气现象,聚类模型预测精度提高有限;对总体样本而,基于天气分型的预测方法较常规方法精度提高2%以上。
It is an effective means to predict the output power of wind farms for ensuring secure and stable operation of power grid concentratedly connected with large-scale wind farms. A whether typing based wind power prediction algorithm is proposed. Based on wind speed vector in numerical weather prediction （NWP） and daily atomospheric pressure and using principal component analysis, the proposed algorithm performs dimensionality reduction for samples and classifies weather types by clustering analysis, and different prediction models are established respectively according to different whether types and compared with single prediction model. Research results show that using the method combining principal component analysis with clustering analysis the weather phenomena can be effectively classified; for more stable whether phenomena the prediction result by clustering model is far more accurate than that by single model; for instable whether phenomena, limited improvement of prediction accuracy by clustering model can be attained; as for overall samples, the accuracy improvement by whether typing based prediction method can reach to 2% and more than traditional prediction method.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期93-98,共6页
Power System Technology
基金
国家863高技术基金项目(2012AA050204)~~
关键词
风电场
天气分型
功率
预测
数值天气预报
wind farm
weather typing
power
prediction
numerical weather prediction
