摘要
利用2004年9月至2012年12月的季度数据,运用ADF、多变量协整分析技术、VAR模型对房地产开发贷款、购房贷款变化与商品房价格波动之间的动态关系进行了实证检验。结果表明:房地产开发贷款是商品房价格的格兰杰原因,商品房价格和房地产开发贷款、购房贷款在长期存在着协整关系。要使房价回归到合理价位,房地产市场调控应当将重点放在紧缩房地产开发贷款、调整土地供应结构、加快房产税改革、引导居民合理住房需求等方面。
It is indicated in the empirical study ,based on the quarterly data from September ,2004 to December ,2012 , of the dynamic relationship between the change of real estate development loan and individual housing loan and the price fluctuation of commercial houses by use of ADF Test ,Variables Co-integration Analysis Technique and VAR Model that there exist the Granger causality of commercial housing price to the issues of the development loan ,and also the long term co -integration relationship among the housing price ,the development loan and the housing loan .It is hence intended to put more emphasis on the condensation of the development loan ,the adjustment of land supply structure ,and the reform of the house property tax and the guidance of the reasonable resident housing requirements for the receivable return to housing price and the effective control on the real estate market .
出处
《安徽工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2013年第5期9-12,共4页
Journal of Anhui University of Technology：Social Sciences
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目:从居民住房负担角度看安徽房地产业的发展(AHSK11-12D69)
关键词
开发贷款
购房贷款
商品房价格
关系
development Ioan
individual housing Ioan
commercial house price
relationship
