摘要
以山东省某企业职工为例研究我国企业退休职工养老金预测模型.根据养老金计算的方法建立了养老金替代率和养老金收支平衡的数学模型;运用曲线拟合法建立了预测2011年至2035年山东省职工年平均工资的数学模型;以山东省某企业某职工为例对模型求解,结果表明:若不深化现行养老金制度的改革,未来25年内随着我国人口老龄化进程的加速,即使养老金替代率不超过58.5%,也难以阻止养老金缺口逐渐增大的趋势.
Mathematical model of pensions predicted for retirees in our country is studied, taking enterprise workers of Shandong province for instance. The mathematical model of substituting rate of the pension and balance of payments for the pension is established on the basis of calculational methods of the pension; the mathematical model for the average yearly salary between 2011--2035 for workers in Shandong province is established by curve fitting method. The results show that if the current pension system isn＇t intensified, the tendency of crescent pension gap will be difficult to prevent even if substituting rate of the pension cannot exceed 58.5% with the acceleration of the process of China＇s aging population in the next 25 years.
出处
《兰州文理学院学报（自然科学版）》
2014年第1期8-11,22,共5页
Journal of Lanzhou University of Arts and Science(Natural Sciences)
关键词
养老金
替代率
缺口
数学模型
预测
pension
substituting rate
gap
mathematical model
predict
