摘要
目的:分析农村和城镇精神分裂症患者的住院费用及其趋势,为进一步完善农村和城镇患者的补偿政策、减轻患者的经济压力提供参考依据。方法:收集某省精神专科医院2006—2012年住院精神分裂症患者的资料,对住院情况进行统计描述,并采用时间序列自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)模型对农村和城镇患者的人均住院费用进行短期预测。结果:7年来农村精神分裂症住院人数增长了75.10%,城镇为93.27%;城镇患者的人均住院天数明显高于农村患者的人均住院天数;农村精神分裂症患者的人均住院费用增长了194.76%,城镇增长了248.72%。农村患者住院费用的预测模型为ARIMA(1,2,1),城镇为ARIMA(1,1,0);2013年农村和城镇患者人均住院费用基本保持先前的上升趋势。结论 :农村和城镇住院精神分裂症患者不断增加,住院费用不断上升,农村患者的经济压力比较大,增加对患者的经济补偿成为必然。
Objective： To analyze hospitalization cost and its trend for schizophrenia in rural and urban areas, to provide references for improving the rural and urban compensation policies and reducing the economic pressures of patients with schizophrenia. Methods： Collecting patients with schizophrenia in a hospital from 2006 to 2012. Using ARIMA model to make short-term forecast of average hospitalization cost for rural and urban patients. Results： The growth rate of rural schizophrenia hospital admissions is 75.10%, 93.27% for the urban areas; urban length of stay was significantly higher than in the rural areas; per capita hospitalization costs of patients increased to 194.76% in rural areas, 248.72% for urban areas. The prediction model of rural patients is ARIMA（1,2,1）, for urban patients is ARIMA （1,1,0） ; rural and urban hospitalization costs remained the previous upward trend in 2013. Conclusion： The number of schizophrenic inpatients is increasing and hospital costs is rising. The rural patient＇s future economic pressure is quite large. It is necessary to increase the patient＇s financial compensation.
出处
《中国卫生经济》
北大核心
2014年第1期68-70,共3页
Chinese Health Economics
