摘要
本文基于金融发展与经济增长之间可能存在突变性的判断,运用平滑移动自回归(STAR)模型,对中国的金融发展与经济增长之间的多重均衡问题重新进行了验证。结果表明,在我国,金融发展与经济增长存在多重均衡现象,且这种现象具有对转型阶段的敏感性。具体而言,金融发展与经济增长的关系在1992年前后处于低水平均衡,而在1996年两者之间的多重均衡现象发生了逆转,均衡点发生了向高水平均衡的跳跃。这表明,随着经济的发展,金融发展与经济增长形成了更高水平的均衡状态。
According to judgments of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, the paper uses smooth movement autoregressive （STAR） model to revalidate the multiple equilibrium problem of China＇s financial development and economic growth. The results show that the phenomenon of multiple equilibrium of financial development and economic growth does exist in China, and this phenomenon shows transition phase sensitivity. Specifically, the phenomenon of multiple equilibrium of financial development and economic growth was at low level around 1992 and then reversed in 1996, and it turned to a relative high level in 1997. These suggest that the financial development anti economic growth to form a higher level of equilibrium with the development of economy.
出处
《南方金融》
北大核心
2013年第12期10-16,共7页
South China Finance
关键词
金融发展
经济增长
多重均衡
STAR模型
Financial Development
Economic Growth
Multiple Equilibrium
STAR Model
