摘要
以1952—2011年我国分省的社会消费品零售额、GDP和年末总人口分别表征区域消费、经济发展和人口数量,采用重心模型结合回归分析与EMD方法,在界定三者重心转移轨迹基础上,从时间多尺度视角揭示60年来我国省区消费重心的演变特征及与经济、人口重心相互作用关系的演变成因机制,结果表明:①我国区域消费重心在纬度与经度向具有不同时间尺度的演变特征,纬度向上,区域消费重心的演变主要以30年尺度及趋势为主,今后有向北移动的趋势;经度向上,区域消费重心主要以8.5年的短时间尺度和世纪尺度为主,短时间来看区域消费重心将向东移动。②区域消费与经济发展和人口分布存在较显著相关关系,但三者间的交互响应关系在时间多尺度的纬度向和经度向上存在明显差异。整体来看,纬度向上,短周期内,经济发展基本上对消费发展起着拉动作用。中长时间内,两者相互影响、相互促进。而中短周期内,人口数量的变动对消费水平的提高影响不显著,长期来看,对消费水平的提高起到积极的推动作用;经度向上,短周期内,经济发展水平的提高、人口数量的变动促进消费水平的改善。中周期内,经济发展与消费呈相互制约关系。中长时间尺度中,人口数量的变动不会促进消费水平的提高。最后提出促进区域消费水平的建议。
Regional consumption is the important driving force of the development of the economy. By analyzing the transfer routine of consumption and GDP, population through the calculation of gravity centre between 1952 and 2011 in China, combing the traditional regression analysis and EMD methods, this paper explores the interaction relations of gravity evolution among them from multi-time scales perspective in the 60 years. The results shows that the evolution of consumption gravity center evolution respectively presents different time scales in latitude and longitude. In latitude, the consumption gravity evolution is mainly composed of 30 years scale and trend, and has a trend to move northwards in fu^re; In longitude, the consumption gravity evolution is mainly composed of 8.5 years short-scale and trend, and has a trend to move eastwards in short-time scale, there exsits obvious correlation and different time-scale interactions between regional consumption and economy, population. In latitude, from shorter time scale, economic development basically drives the development of consumption, from long time scale, they present mutual promotion and influence each other. While, from short-medium time scale, the population changing is not significant to raise the level of consumption, in the long run, it plays an active role. In longitude, from shorter time scale, the development of economy and population increase will promote the improvement of the level of consumption, from medium time scale, economic development and consumption show interactive restriction relation, from long time scale, population change will not improve the level of consumption. Finally, we put forward some suggestions to promote regional consumption level.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期7-14,共8页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271128)
江苏省高校自然科学基础研究项目(11KJB170003)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(地理学)
关键词
消费重心
经济重心
人口重心
EMD分解
中国
consumption gravity center
economy gravity center
population gravity center
EMD decomposition
China
