摘要
我国铜矿产资源虽然较为丰富,但国内铜矿长期处于供不应求的状态.供需矛盾仍十分严峻.在深入分析影响我国铜矿需求的5大主要因素的基础上,运用BP神经网络,建立了铜矿需求情景分析模型,并利用1991-2011年的相关数据进行了测算,得出2015-2025年我国铜矿产资源需求情景,得到了相应的研究结果.针对我国铜矿资源供给的实际状况,以及设定的全球经济增长率和我国经济增长率的情景,采用了科学的定性定量分析方法,数据来源可靠,结论可信,所得到的2015-2025年我国铜矿产资源需求情景.具一定的参考意义.
The copper resources have long been in short supply in China in spite of China's relatively abundant copper reserve. This paper establishes the copper demand scenario model with BP Neural Network based on the analysis of the five major factors affecting the copper resources demand. The copper demand scenario from 2015 to 2025 is forecasted by using the data from 1991 to 2011. Qualitative and quantitative analysis methods used in the research makes the conclusion reliable. The copper demand scenarios from 2015 to 2025 is ana- lyzed on the basis of the actual state of supply and demand of copper resources in China by setting the global and domestic economic growth rates.
出处
《有色金属科学与工程》
CAS
2014年第1期99-106,共8页
Nonferrous Metals Science and Engineering
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(12YJA790208)