摘要
外商直接投资是供应链环节中的重要主体.论文在阐述外商直接投资在中国的状况及中国政府吸引外商直接投资所采取的政策与措施的基础上,运用极值边界分析模型(EBA),基于对数据的相关分析与回归估计选择了3个核心变量和5个条件变量,对中国外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析.结果表明:从长期来看,外商直接投资在一定程度上刺激中国经济增长,但这种刺激作用有限.从各个分阶段看,外商直接投资对中国经济增长的促进作用是不确定的.起步阶段与缓慢发展阶段,外商直接投资对中国经济增长的促进作用有限;快速发展阶段,外商直接投资能显著地促进中国经济增长.这种结论上的不完全一致,表明外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响是与中国国情及外商直接投资在中国发展态势息息相关的,是有时间特质的.通过短期分析能更精确地反映外商直接投资对中国经济增长的动态影响,而长期分析消除了个别异常数据在短期的较大影响,从而体现动态影响的长期趋势,可见将短期与长期结合分析外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响意义重大.
Foreign direct investment （FDI） plays a crucial role in supply chain links. This paper aims to expound tile status quo of FDI in China and the policies and measures adopted by Chinese government to attract foreign direct investment. On such a basis, extrelne bounds analysis （EBA） is applied, three core variables and five conditional variables are selected in tile light of tile relevant data analysis and the estimation in regression, all empirical study shows tile relationship between FDI in China and China＇s econoinic growth. It has been found that FDI stimulates China＇s economic growth to some extent in tile long terin, but this function is limited. In each stage, the effects of FDI on China＇s econolnic growth are indefinite. To be more specific, in the initiative and slow progressive stages, FDI plays a linfited role in China＇s economic growth. In the period of fast development, FDI promotes China＇s economic growth significantly. This inconsistency shows that tile effects of FDI on China＇s economic growth are closely associated with China＇s domestic situations and the development of FDI in China, which is tin,e-oriented. The short-term analysis can precisely describe the dynamic changes regarding the relationship between FDI and China＇s economic growth; however, the long-term analysis may eliminate the effects of abnormal data in tile short term, and hence the dynamic long-term tendency can be demonstrated. As a result, it is significant to integrate the short-term and long-term analyses of the effects of FDI on China＇s econoinic growth.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期282-290,共9页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(71172194
71031004
71221001
70731003
70731160635)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
关键词
供应链
外商直接投资
经济增长
EBA
supply chain
foreign direct investment
economic growth
EBA
