摘要
利用河套灌区农业气象试验站近20a的大田生产和气象资料,基于作物生理发育时间恒定原理,并充分考虑光、温、水3种气象条件对玉米发育进程的影响,建立基于气候适宜度的河套灌区玉米发育期模拟模型。利用模型计算巴彦淖尔市和土默特左旗两站的玉米生理发育时间,并模拟两站共10a的玉米发育过程,利用RMSE、配对样本T检验和MAPE3种方法对模拟结果进行检验。结果表明:模型对玉米营养生长阶段和全生育期的模拟较精确,对生殖生长阶段各个发育期的模拟也通过了0.05水平的显著性检验,出苗期、七叶期和全生育期模拟值与观测值的相关系数分别达到0.753、0.786和0.996,RMSE值分别为2.324、2.846和3.771d。说明综合考虑光、温、水气象条件后可提高模型的准确性,该模型可用于河套地区玉米的生育期和产量预报。
Based on the physiological development time which influenced by the temperature, sunlight and soil moisture, and meteorological and crop data at Hetao irrigation area last 20 years, a simulation model for maize physiological developmental stage was established. The physiological development stage of maize was calculated by using of the simulation model in Bayannaoer and Tumotezuoqi, the simulation results of 10 years were calculated and checked out by the root mean square error（ RMSE）, Paired -Samples T Test and the mean absolute percentage error （MAPE）. The results showed that the simulation model was more accurate during vegetation growth stage and whole growth period, and it also passed the inspection during reproductive growth stage, the correlation coefficient between the simulated results and observed values was 0. 753,0. 786 and 0. 996 in the seeding stage, the 7 -leaf stage and whole growth period respectively. Moreover, the root mean square error （RMSE） between the simulated results and observed values was 2. 324d, 2. 846d and 3.771d respectively. It showed that comprehensive considering the meteorological conditions of temperattire, sunlight and soil moisture was helpful for the simulation. This simulation model was relatively robust on mechanistic explanation, and could be applied to simulate and to predict the physiological development time of maize in Hetao irrigation area, it also could be contribute to prediction of maize yield.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期62-67,共6页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(201206021)
关键词
河套灌区
玉米
气候适宜度
生理发育时间
生育期模型
Hetao irrigation area
Maize
Climate suitability
Physiological development time
Simulation model ofdevelopment stage
