摘要
金融抑制导致了国内资本市场的分割,由此对经济产生了两方面的影响,易得到金融资源的部门会受益于金融抑制政策,而难以得到金融资源部门的发展受到抑制。老龄化降低了要素供给,国民经济尤其是难以得到金融资源部门的发展将受到负面影响,由此提高了金融抑制的成本,加强了进行金融改革的动机。本文从人口年龄结构角度来对金融抑制进行分析,研究发现,如果老年抚养比提高一个百分点,那么金融抑制程度将会下降0.02,与金融抑制指标的均值相比,下降了4.99%。对于中国而言,在中、低死亡率方案下,2020年老年抚养比的提高将使金融抑制程度分别下降0.12和0.16。
Financial repression leads to the segmentation of the capital market. There are two aspects of finan- cial repression influence. Firstly, the department with channel to the financial resource benefits from the finan- cial repression. Secondly, the department which could not obtain the financial resource easily damages from the financial repression. Ageing lowers clown the factor supply, which has a negative impact on the national econo- my, especially the department without channel to the financial resource. As a result, the cost of financial re- pression increases. Moreover, the motive of financial reform reinforces. The paper investigates the financial re- pression from the perspective of demographic structure. The result reveals that the increase of one percent in aged dependency ratio decreases the financial repression index 0.02. In China, the increase of aged dependen- cy ratio in 2020 cause the decline of financial repression index O. 12 under medium mortality scheme and O. 16 under low mortality scheme.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期1-15,共15页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(12&ZD074)
国家社科基金青年项目(13CRK030)的资助
关键词
金融抑制
人口年龄结构
老年抚养比
Financial repression, Demographic structure, Aged dependency ratio
