摘要
井塌事故在钻井过程极其常见,由于钻井液、井身结构等设计不合理,以及钻井过程的误操作均会造成井塌的发生,其后果主要是造成卡钻、卡套管等事故,严重时造成井眼毁坏。为了对井塌事故进行危险性分析,采用贝叶斯网络与故障树相结合的方法,避免传统故障树方法的局限性。首先对井塌事故的所有危险因素进行辨识建立故障树,然后将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络,建立条件概率表,运用贝叶斯网络的推理能力对井塌事故进行危险性分析。对井塌事故各基本事件概率分布的计算分析结果表明,考虑事件的多态性,综合利用故障树分析法和贝叶斯网络法能有效提高井塌事故分析的有效性,推算出井塌事故概率分布更为准确。
Because of the incorrect design of drilling fluid and hole geometry,and faulty operation in drilling,the borehole collapse hazards in drilling are extremely common,resulting in sticking and wellbore damage. For the purpose of analyzing the hazard of borehole collapse,the method of combining BN and FTA avoided the limitation of traditional FTA. A fault tree was built first by identifying all the risk factors of borehole collapse,then it was mapped into a Bayesian network to generate a conditional probability distribution table,so as to assess the borehole collapse hazard by the inference of Bayesian network. The computing analysis on probability distribution of all the basic events in borehole collapse showed that,when different states of events are considered,the analysis quality for the hazard of borehole collapse can be improved by comprehensively using FTA and BN,and the probability distribution of borehole collapse can be calculated more accurately.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
2014年第1期143-149,共7页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
"十二五"国家科技重大专项子任务(2011ZX05056-001-05)
关键词
井塌事故
故障树分析
贝叶斯网络
概率计算
borehole collapse
fault tree analysis
Bayesian networks
probability calculation
