摘要
本文提出将"气候容量"概念作为适应气候变化的核心测度,并论述了与此相关的气候资源承载力、生态承载力、水资源承载力、土地承载力、人口承载力等概念。气候容量是针对全球气候和环境变化背景下提出的概念,从根本上讲,中国适应气候变化是气候容量问题,即一个地区特定气候资源所能够承载的自然生态系统和人类社会经济活动的数量、强度和规模。气候容量包括天然容量和衍生容量,天然容量包括温度、光照、降水、极端气候事件等因子,衍生容量包括水资源、土地资源、生态资源、气候灾害风险等要素。气候容量可以借助工程、技术、制度等适应措施进行改善和转移,但是必须遵循经济理性、生态完整性、风险防护、公平分配等原则。对气候容量及其阈值的评估能够与气候变化风险评估相结合,测算出不同气候变化情景下的最优人口容量和社会经济发展规模,为社会经济发展战略和适应规划提供决策支持。在气候容量充裕的地区,适应气候变化是与人口和经济发展相伴生的问题;而在气候容量严重受限地区,不合理的发展可能进一步恶化气候环境。作者以气候容量充裕的长三角地区和气候容量严重短缺的西部地区为例,分析了气候容量的政策含义,并针对容量限制型的适应问题与发展驱动型的适应问题提出了具体建议。气候容量不仅可以作为气候变化经济学的概念分析工具,而且可以结合气候变化影响和风险评估,为制定地区适应与发展规划提供研究支持。
This paper proposes a concept of ＂Climate Capacity＂ in dealing with climate disasters and risks, focusing on related carrying capacities, such as climatic resources carrying capacity, water resources carrying capacity, ecological carrying capacity, land carrying capacity and environmental capacity. From a perspective of global climate and environmental change, this paper argued that adaptation to climate change in China should consider as constraints of climate capacity. Climate capacity is the total potential productivity of ecological system and volume of socio-economic activities which can be carried by the specific climatic resources in a region during a period. Climate capacity is comprised of two components; one is the natural determinants including temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and extreme climatic events, etc. The other is the derived capacity, including determinants of water, land, ecosystem, and climatic disaster risks. Taken consideration of principles of cost-benefits, ecological integrity, social justice and climate proofing into adaptive policies and measures, climate capacity can be enlarged or shrinked, as well transferred between regions and periods, by engineering, technical, and institutional interventions. This concept can be used in climate change risk assessment so as to evaluate the thresholds of climate capacity for population planning and socio-economic development. Taking examples from east and west regions with different climate capacities in China, the authors declared that irrational development in those regions with very limited climate capacity would deteriorate ecological environment; on the contrary, in those regions with rich climate capacity, climate risks are driven by increasing exposure of population and assets, which can be defined as development-driven adaptation and climate capacity limited adaptation. A conclusion is drawn that climate capacity can not only be a methodology for climate change economics research, but must be taken as a key indicator for climate adaptation planning.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期1-8,共8页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中-英-瑞士"中国适应气候变化项目"
国家自然科学基金重点项目"长三角城市密集区气候变化适应性管理对策研究"(编号:70933005)
国家自然科学基金青年项目"适应气候变化治理机制:东西部案例比较研究"(编号:71203231)
IRDR-CHINA项目"气候变化
干旱与移民:动力机制与风险评估"
关键词
气候变化
气候容量
适应
发展
气候变化经济学
climate change
climate capacity
adaptation
development
climate change economics
