摘要
随着我国在固体废物和电子废物污染治理方面政策和法律的完善,构建电子废弃物的回收网络和管理体系是今后我国电子废弃物资源化和处置的重点,但其前提是准确预测电子废弃物的产生量和类型。文章借鉴"环境容量"概念,根据城市化进程特征和人口数量变化规律,利用生态学中的logistic种群增长模型,并结合电子废弃物的产生特征,对该模型进行改进,以天津市为例,针对家用电脑、手机、彩色电视机、电冰箱、空调等5类电子产品为研究对象,对天津电子废弃物产生量的增加趋势进行预测,结果表明,5类电子产品的总废弃量将在2040年左右出现峰值,其产生量将从2010年的362.57万台增加到2040年的1 877.66万台。根据该预测结果,可以为天津市构建电子废弃物回收利用体系提供前期研究基础,并对全国其他大中型城市电子废弃物回收都具有借鉴作用。
With the improvement of the policy and legal system involving solid waste and electronic waste in China, much attention should be paid to the constructing of recycling network and management system of electronic waste recycle and dis-posal, which ought to be based on a good prediction of electrical and electronic equipment wastes in terms of their generation amount and categories. In this paper, the concept of environmental capacity was used and based on which an improved logis-tic population growth model of ecology was applied to the prediction of electronic waste increase, considering the urbanization characteristics and population increases. Then growth of home appliances such as computer, mobile phone, color TV sets, re- frigerators and air conditioners in Tianjin was predicted regarding the increasing trend. Results showed that the year 2040 would be the peak year of the gross amount of electronic waste generated, and the amount of the above-mentioned five kinds of electronic waste would increase from 3.625 7 million units in 2010 to 18.776 6 million units in 2040, thus providing the basis on which countermeasure could be made in formulating recycle and management system for Tianjin.
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期188-193,共6页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研课题(20110031120022)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
关键词
电子废弃物
改进logistic模型
预测
对策措施
waste electrical and electronic equipment
modified logistic model
estimation
countermeasure
