摘要
已有的实证研究表明,我国商品期货价格指数能够在一定程度上反映主要宏观经济指标的变动情况。商品期货价格指数不但能够在数值水平上领先GDP和CPI,在波动幅度上对CPI也具有一定的预示作用。本文经过理论推导和实证分析,分析了当货币供应量发生变化时,商品期货价格指数如何预先反映经济增长和通胀水平的变动方向和幅度,论证了在监控货币政策对实体经济影响效果方面商品期货价格指数的参考价值,从而在新的维度上刻画了其对于货币政策的参考意义。
It has been tested by empirical methods that the commodity futures index is highly correlated with CPI,and can forecast CPI in advance.In fact,the commodity futures index can also provide some preview on the fluctuation range of PPI and CPI.This paper examines when the money supply changed in current period,how the commodity futures index will forecast the volatility of GDP and CPI,gives some insight on its value of monitoring the effects of monetary policy,and describes its information content for monetary policy from a new perspective.
出处
《中南财经政法大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期99-105,160,共7页
Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
基金
北京市哲学社会科学规划重点项目"北京市‘去工业化’之都市金融中心构建研究:产业结构变迁视角"(10AbJG366)
关键词
商品期货价格指数
货币政策
CPI
PPI
Commodity Futures Price Index
Information Variable of Monetary Policy
CPI
PPI
