摘要
国内外研究者对技术预测给予了不同的阐释。专利分析作为技术预测的一种有效工具,可以为技术创新提供有力的决策支持。针对特定技术领域的预测,是基于"专利三性"隐含的技术发展方向、技术发展水平和技术发展潜力的特征所作出的判断。因此,可以建立一个基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型。概念模型在纵向层次上分为总预测层、预测综合层、预测分析层和预测信息层。在此基础上,选择和运用相应的专利分析指标和方法,形成一个技术预测的专利分析方法框架,以指导实际的技术预测活动。技术预测的效用可以用技术的发展方向、发展水平和发展潜力这三个变量予以描述。但专利分析也存在局限性,需要与其它方法配合使用。
There are different definitions for technology forecast domestically and abroad. Being an effective tool for technology forecast, patent analysis is very helpful to technological innovation decision-making. Because the forecast in specific technology fields is based on features of technology development direction, level and potential implicated in the “three natures of patent”, so a conceptual model of technology forecast can be built on the basis of patent analysis. The proposed model consists four layers of overall forecast, forecast con-solidated, predictive analysis and forecast information from a longitudinal level. Based on this, corresponding indicators and methods of patent analysis can be chosen and used to build a patent analysis frame for technology forecast to guide the actual activities of technology forecast. The effectiveness of technology forecast can be described with the three variables of development direction, level and potential of technology. And it is suggested that other methods be used together with patent analysis because of its limitations.
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期22-27,共6页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
广东省自然科学基金项目"产学研技术创新联盟:模式与运行机制研究"(编号:S2011040004369)
广东省软科学研究计划项目"基于知识管理视角的区域自主创新体系运行机制研究"(编号:2011B070400002)
广州市社会科学规划课题"广州市专利资助政策与绩效研究"(编号:2012GJ33)
关键词
技术预测
专利文献
专利指标
专利分析
技术创新
概念模型
technology forecast
patent literature
patent indicators
patent analysis
technological innovation
conceptual model
