摘要
从空间角度研究农村居民点演变驱动机制对农村居民点用地管理与优化具有重要意义,而栅格尺度的确定是其重要前提。以地处经济发达地区的太仓市浏河镇为例,基于GIS及SPSS统计分析软件,采用二分类Logistic回归模型探讨不同栅格尺度对其农村居民点变化驱动分析的影响及具体驱动机制。结果显示,栅格尺度为10m×10m时驱动力模型的精度、解释能力及拟合度最佳,农村居民点变化能得到较好的解释;农民人均纯收入的提高可推动研究区农村居民点空间调整,公路的吸引力可促进农村居民点向交通方便的地区调整,而人口密度、地均农业产值、人均耕地面积、基本农田及到水系的距离仅对农村居民点增加有影响,地均工业产值、人均居民点面积及到城镇的距离仅对农村居民点减少有影响。研究表明栅格尺度对农村居民点变化驱动力模型的精度、解释能力及拟合度存在影响,进而影响驱动因素及其重要性的识别,相关研究应结合研究区实际确定最佳栅格尺度;为推进农村居民点优化,应从发展农村经济、提高农民收入、合理规划乡村公路、建立农村宅基地退出补偿机制及加强基本农田保护等方面入手。
Scale plays a key role in the studies of driving mechanism of rural settlement changes when raster data were used with the aid of geographic information system. This paper thus explored the impacts of vari ous scales on the driving force analysis of rural settlement changes and the related driving mechanism in the developed township of Liuhe Township, Taicang County by the method of binary logistic regression model. The results showed that the driving force model best fit the data from 1996 to 2008 at the resolution of 10 m, farmers/ net income per capita was found to be the impetus of the spatial adjustment of rural settlements, and attractiveness of roads could also promote the spatial adjustment of rural settlements for convenient transportation. Population density, agricultural production value per area, arable land per capita, basic farmland and distance to main irrigation system had impacts on increase of rural settlement area, while industrial output per area, residential area per capita and the distance to town had merely impacts on decrease of rural resi dents. Our study illustrated that the impacts of various resolutions on the accuracy, interpretation power and goodness of fit of the constructed model, which further influenced the identification of driving factors and their substance. Therefore, resolution of raster data should be decided in the initial period of research before further analysis. Additionally, measures for the optimization of rural settlements include development of rural economy, increasing farmersr income, planning of rural village roads, construction of exit and compensa tion mechanism of rural settlements, and protection of the basic farmland.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期127-132,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101546)
江苏师范大学博士学位教师科研支持项目(12XLR010)
关键词
土地利用变化
农村居民点
驱动力
栅格尺度
LOGISTIC回归
land use change
rural settlement area
driving forces
resolution of raster data
logistic regres sion model
