摘要
利用1991～2011年FAO与国家水禽产业技术体系内部统计的肉鹅生产数据，运用ARIMA模型、线性回归、比例预测、经验调整4种方法对我国肉鹅的出栏量、产肉量和鹅肉价格进行了预测。综合预测结果表明，2014年我国鹅存栏量的平均值为17406．5万只，鹅肉产量为1747613吨：鹅价格为26884元／吨。另外，参照扬州大学徐琪根据我国鹅品种统计的鹅年存栏量21195万只，可以估算出2014年我国鹅年存栏量将处在1．7亿只～2．1亿只区间之内。鉴于该综合预测结果，为促进肉鹅产业平稳度过调整期走向更加优化的产业结构，对2013年禽流感冲击后的肉鹅产业提出了相关的政策建议。
Based on the goose production data of 199l to 2011 from FAO and the internal statistics of National Waterfowl Industry Technology System about the waterfowl industry, the goose production, meat production and meat price in China were predicted using the ARIMA model,linear regression, proportional prediction, and experience-based adjustments. The comprehensive predictions provided an average forecast of 174.065 million for the 2014 number of domestic geese in China, 1 747 613 tons for the goose meat production,and 26 884 yuan per ton for the meat price. Furthermore,according to XU Qi from Yangzhou University forecasts based on the goose varieties that there would be 211.95 million geese raised in China in 2014. Hence,the 2014 number of domestic geese in China was estimated in the range of 170 to 210 million. Finally,on this basis,policy recommendations were put forward to ensure the goose industry could make a smooth transition to the optimized industrial structure after being affected by the 2013 avian influenza.
出处
《中国家禽》
北大核心
2014年第6期26-31,共6页
China Poultry
基金
现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-43-10B)
关键词
肉鹅产业
存栏量
产肉量
价格
预测
goose industry
stock
meat production
price
forecast
