摘要
作为旱灾风险管理的核心内容和关键环节，旱灾风险评估逐渐成为旱灾研究的热点问题。从科学界定旱灾风险概念入手，辨析了干旱风险与旱灾风险之间的关系，并从机理上对旱灾风险形成机制进行了剖析和阐述；首次提出了旱灾风险定量评估总体框架，即通过建立干旱频率～潜在损失～抗旱能力之间的定量关系实现对旱灾风险的定量评估，并探讨了该评估框架所涉及的干旱频率分析技术、灾损评估技术、抗旱能力评估技术和旱灾风险表征技术等关键技术及其难点。
As the key content and core element identified in the practice of drought disaster risk management, it has become a hot-button issue on how to properly assess the drought disaster risk in the field of both science and technology. Starting with reviewing the definition of drought disaster risk concept in the scientific community, the differences between the concepts of the drought risk and the drought disaster risk are made clear in this study. The mechanism of drought disaster risk formation is then investigated and elaborated. A quantitative framework for assessing drought disaster risk is first proposed, this is achieved by establishing the quantitative relationship among three important parame- ters： the drought frequency, the potential loss and the drought resistance capacity. The key techniques used in the framework are highlighted and discussed, which include the drought frequency analysis, the drought disaster loss assessment, the drought resistance capacity assessment, and the drought disaster risk characterization. The active issues and difficulties related to the techniques are also respectively addressed.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期297-304,共8页
Advances in Water Science
基金
中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项(防集1225)
水利部重大基建前期项目(防水利前期1301)~~
关键词
旱灾风险
定量评估
干旱频率分析
灾损评估
抗旱能力
drought disaster risk
quantitative assessment
technique for drought frequency analysis
technique fordrought disaster loss assessment
technique for drought resistance capacity assessment
