摘要
目的应用数理模型预测福建省肺结核登记发病率，为结核病控制工作提供科学依据。方法分析2008～2012年福建省结核病防治机构肺结核患者发现任务完成情况，并运用灰色理论建立灰色模型GM（1，1），预测未来几年肺结核的登记发病率。结果5年来，全省初治涂阳肺结核患者发现任务均超额完成每年省卫生厅下达的发现任务，但复治涂阳患者、初治涂阴患者和活动性肺结核患者发现任务除2010年完成外，其余均未达到任务要求；2008～2012年，复治涂阳患者发现任务完成率分别为56．67％、85．51％、〉100．00％、81．67％和93．89％，初治涂阴患者发现任务完成率分别为82．95％、95．83％、〉100．00％、90．72％和88．25％，活动性肺结核患者发现任务完成率分别为90．06％、98．29％、〉100．00％、95．14％和94．77％。应用灰色数列模型GM（1，1）预测2013~2015年福建省初治涂阳肺结核患者登记发病率分别为20．16／10万、18．05／10万和16．17／10万，活动性肺结核患者登记发病率分别为46．94／10万、43．48／10万和40．27／10万。经统计分析2008年～2009年实际监测登记的初治涂阳和活动性肺结核患者登记发病率与该测算的预测值、省卫生厅下达的年度发现任务指标之间的差距无明显区别（P〉0．05）。结论建立的灰色数列模型GM（1，1）模型对活动性肺结核患者进行预测，经检验拟合优度好，可外推预测，可以为疾病预防控制绩效考核方案更好地制定准确、科学的任务指标提供参考。
Objective To utilize the mathematics model to predict the registered incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis Jn Fujian province,so as to provide scientific basis for TB control. Methods Analysis was made on the completion status in detection of TB patient target of Fujian TB control institutions during 2008-2012, then predict the trend of TB by gray model GM （1,1）. Results The detection target of new smear positive TB designed by Fujian Health department was over-fulfilled in the whole province for 2008-2012;but other ones were fulfilled in 2010 only,that of re-treatment was 56.67%,85.51%,〉100.00%,81.67%, and 93.89% respectively, new smear negative was 82.95%, 95.83%, 100.00%,90.72%,and 88.25% respectively, active TB was 82.95%,95.83%,%100.00%,90.72%,and 88.25% respectively. The registered incidence rate of new smear positive TB was predicted with the gray model GM （1,1） was 20. 16,18.05 and 16.17/105 respectively; that of active TB was 46.94,43.48 and 40.27/105 respectively during 2013-2015 in Fujian province. The differences in registered incidence rate between registered in fact and predicted by GM （1,1） or designed by Health department without significance（ P 〉0.05） during 2009-2012. Conclusion The gray model GM （1,1） is effective in predicting the incidence of TB, and the results might extrapolate, moreover, it could provide scientific evidence for performance assessment for disease control and prevention work.
出处
《预防医学论坛》
2014年第3期189-192,共4页
Preventive Medicine Tribune
关键词
结核
肺
发病率
发现
预测
Tuberculosis
Pulmonary
Incidence
Detect
Predict
