摘要
CAFTA实施十年来,中国—东盟农产品贸易快速增长,对贸易效应及其来源评价具有重要的理论和政策参考价值。本文基于贸易效应测度和分解两步法,从农产品总体和分类产品两个层面定量评估CAFTA的事后贸易效应,探讨其对我国农业的影响。结果表明,CAFTA对双边农产品贸易的推动作用明显,增长主要来自贸易创造;占我国从东盟进口70%的重点产品表现出明显的贸易创造效果,CAFTA贸易效应的产品结构性特征显著;CAFTA建设中快速的贸易开放在带来较大贸易利益的同时并未对国内产业造成冲击,未来应优先选择贸易结构互补的国家开展自贸区谈判。
The foundation of the FTA can boost trade growth between its members,which is the impetus for promoting the development of economic integration.Since the decade of CAFTA's implementation,the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN has grown fast.Based on the two-step methods for decomposing the trade effect,the paper empirically evaluated CAFTA's trade creation and trade diversion effect from overall and sorted levels.The results show that CAFTA boosts the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN,and the growth comes mainly from trade creation;;The major products,which account for 70%of China's imports from ASEAN,also obtain remarkable trade creation;;CAFTA's trade effect has obvious structural character;;The trade liberation of CAFTA did not harm domestic agricultural industries,while bringing significant trade benefits.China should give priority to the nations that have a high degree of complementary with China to carry out FTA negotiations in the future.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期58-63,111,共6页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
2013年农业部国际交流与合作项目"农业多双边谈判中的重点议题跟踪研究"的阶段性研究成果
