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基于确定性系数概率模型的降雨型滑坡孕灾环境因子敏感性分析——以四川省低山丘陵区为例 被引量:24

Susceptibility Analysis of Precipitation-induced Landslide Disaster-pregnant Environmental Factors Based on the Certainty Factor Probability Model——Taking the Hilly Area in Sichuan as Example
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摘要 分析降雨型滑坡孕灾环境因子的敏感性,有利于提高对该类型滑坡的预测精度。以四川省低山丘陵区为例,通过高分辨率遥感影像解译和野外实地调查等方法,建立滑坡编目数据库,并在此基础上,选取高程、坡度、地形起伏度、岩土类型、道路、河流和断裂构造共7个因子作为降雨诱发滑坡的孕灾环境因子,基于GIS空间分析技术,应用确定性系数概率模型,对这7个因子的敏感性进行研究。研究结果表明:四川省低山丘陵区降雨型滑坡多发育在:①高程在400~1000m的范围内,特别是600—800m的区域;②坡度为15°-30°的区域;③砂岩、砾岩和页岩等岩石类型中。应用滑坡敏感性指数分析发现,岩土类型、高程和坡度对研究区内降雨型滑坡的分布起到控制作用。 The analysis of susceptibility of disaster-pregnant environmental factors of the precipitation-induced landslide is beneficial to improving the forecast accuracy of such landslide. Taking the low mountains and hilly area of Siehuan Province for example and by methods such as interpretation of high-resolution remote-sensing images and field survey, landslide catalog database is established. As disaster pregnant environmental factors of the precipitati- on-induced landslide, 7 factors are selected, including elevation, slope, relief degree of land surface, soil, road, river and fault. Based on GIS spatial analysis, and by using the certainty factor probability model, susceptibility of these 7 factors are researched. The research demonstrates that: the precipitation-induced landslide in the low mountains and hilly area of Siehuan Province mostly evolves in places of: (~) elevation from 400 m to 1 000 m, es- pecially in areas of 600 m to 800 m; (~) slope from 15~ to 30~; (~) soil type such as sandstone, conglomerate and shale. The analysis of the susceptibility index of the landslide finds that the soil, elevation and slope control the distribution of the precipitation-induced landslide in the study area.
出处 《灾害学》 CSCD 北大核心 2014年第2期109-115,共7页 Journal of Catastrophology
基金 国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAH33B03 2012BAH33B05) 民政部减灾和应急工程重点实验室开放基金(LDRERE20120104)
关键词 低山丘陵区 滑坡 敏感性分析 确定性系数 low mountains and hills landslide susceptibility analysis certainty factor
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