摘要
基于门限效应回归模型,利用中国1993年第一季度至2013年第二季度的季度数据,将收入增长率作为门限变量,对金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。研究发现金融发展与经济增长之间存在显著的非线性关系。当收入增长率位于门限值以下时,金融发展对于经济增长的作用并不是十分显著;但是,当收入增长率位于门限值以上时,金融发展对于经济增长具有显著的正效应。经验结论表明,为了充分发挥金融发展对经济增长的正向作用,应当将收入增长率保持在较高的水平上。
Based on threshold regression model,this paper use China's quarterly data from 1993 Q1 to 2013 Q2,set income grow th rate as the threshold variable,test the relationship betw een financial development and economic grow th. The study found there w as a significant nonlinear relationship betw een financial development and economic grow th. When income grow th rate is located below the threshold,the role of financial development for economic grow th is not very significant; how ever,w hen income grow th rate is located above the threshold,financial development has a significant positive effect for economic grow th. Empirical research concludes that in order to get a positive effect of financial development for economic grow th,income grow th rate should be controlled at a higher level.
出处
《吉林大学社会科学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期21-27,171,共7页
Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(10ZD&006)
关键词
金融发展
经济增长
收入增长率
门限效应回归模型
financial development
economic growth
income growth rate
threshold regression model
