摘要
房地产业是国家发展的基础性产业,而城镇化作为衡量一个国家整体发展程度的重要标准,其发展水平的高低必然会对房地产业产生影响,因此定量化研究城镇化发展水平对我国房地产业的影响具有重要的意义。基于此,本文利用计量经济学软件,对1996—2012年我国城镇化率与房地产业之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究表明:城镇化与我国房地产业有较为密切的相关性,城镇化是房地产业发展的动力。我国的城镇化水平与房地产业发展之间存在长期稳定的正向变动关系,城镇化水平每提高1%,房地产投资额、商品房销售面积以及商品房价格分别提高7.72%、5.28%、3.49%,城镇化水平的提高对我国房地产业的发展具有明显的带动作用。
The level of urbanization is an important standard that measures the country＇s overall level of development. The real estate, as the foundation industry of our country, is playing a more and more important role. Urbanization will impact on the real estate industry inevitably. We make the empirical analysis between the urbanization and the real estate based on the date 1996 to 2012 with the method of econometrics in the paper. It reveals that they are relevant closely, urbanization is the driving force for the development of the real estate industry. There exists a long-term stability of the positive changes between China＇s urbanization rate and the development of real estate. When the rate of urbanization increase one percent, the amount of investment of the real estate, the commercial housing sales and the average price of commercial housing will rise respectively 7.72, 5.28, 3.49 percent. Raising the rate of urbanization could promote the development of the real estate.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期78-83,共6页
Economic Geography
关键词
城镇化
房地产业
协整分析
因果关系
urbanization
real estate
co-integration analysis
causal relationship
